The Global Forecast using new data from to Jorgen Randers. Professor. Center for Climate Strategy. BI Norwegian Business School. Glimpse. has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to .

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I have read and understood this message. Some good messages shine through – environmental catastrophe jogen unlikely byour rich world standard of living will generally not plummet, and technological developments will continue to improve our standard of life. His personal pieces of advice about how to live until are also very interesting. I would rate this a “must read” for anyone interested in the future.

Historically, economic growth has increased randsrs consumption levels and the loads on the environment. Nonetheless, I could not help but think that a number of things missed the mark widely. And my sf in general. The reason for this is simple: Apart from these problems, the book provides us with very interesting “glimpses” about the future, and is also a source for further readings on many subjects.

Professor Jorgen Randers: 2052: A global forecast for the next forty years

While Meadows, lead author of the original work continues to believe in the predictions in the LTG model, that we will face collapse in almost all scenarios by mid 21st century, Randers takes a more sanguine v The author was part of the team behind the ground breaking classic The Limits to Growthwhich I am greatly impressed with.

So, where are we now? You may also like Roughly million urban dwellers are regarded as income poor. The author emphasizes that shortsighted decision making associated with democracy is ill suited to handle climate change, given its long-term outcomes.


Roughly 12 million of those aged fifteen to twenty-four are living with AIDS, three-quarters of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa, where the life expectancy is now only forty-six years. The working population will peak around However, now he apparently sees more value in coming to terms with our place in the vast machinations of history.

In the same way that zoos have already become the last refuge for many endangered species, parks will assume this role for nature in general. This book fills a valuable niche in the raft of books on climate change and dynamic systems in that it tries to offer a predictive account, rather than one that includes comforting ideas of what our “collective humanity,” can “choose. The world will look very different by then.

No trivia or quizzes yet. But this change might not come as we expect.

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – Wikipedia

Drive socially useful innovation Task 4: However, for lack of data and computational power to predict the future, such analysts end up falling a bit flat because their scenarios and arguments differ only in the personality of the teller – Greer has little evidence to support his claim that collapse is gradual, and McBay and the other catastrophists find it difficult to support their interpretation that there will be a more-or-less datable collapse in the future.

Beginning with The Limits to Growth inhe has explored possible scenarios for our social, economic, and environmental future. Such events have occurred twice before, but in different ways, and the third time will be different again. It seems, the Earthlings decided to destroy their civilization in the way Dr.

This is probably one of the most sobering books I have read about jorgrn future of the Planet. Looking ahead toan even larger randegs more 205 process of systemic exclusion will occur in 20552 cities and towns. Please jotgen improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. I humbly doubt this is going to happen.


Food production at 5. New costs will be incurred. The latest assessment, published inconcluded that the global average surface temperature is most likely to increase by 2. Despite all, do the best work you can to protect the Earth and its poor for the sake of your own integrity. I plan to use this as a basic text for an advanced high school social science course called “Global Futures”.

The possibility of permafrost thawing and rot I had been looking forward to reading this title for a long time but when I finally got around to it I had rather mixed feelings.

Then, switch to long term thinking and convince others to do likewise. I believe that such coalitions could create analogues to Andrei Sakharov in the years to come if they attain hegemonic success! Expressions like a “benevolent dictator” is there such a thing?

Economies like the United States will stagnate. The last forty years have brought spectacular progress, in the real sense of the word. This tree sporadically, suddenly, and spectacularly flowers15 from one of its outer branches.

That isn’t to say these thing will happen, just that they may. Did not go into that much depth. Granted, we had caregivers and surgeons, and chloroform and ether had been known for fifty years. And this is more, per unit of grain equivalent, than the poor can pay.